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Friday, May 25, 2007

How Fast Should My First 5K Be?

My first 5K is coming up. A strategy needs to be developed. Presently, my best is 26:33, though that is on a track, alone. A 26:30 is highlighted below in red. How fast can I go in a race? That's the $64,000 question.

My last 5K was in 1999, when I was in 32, when I ran a 21:11 (6:50/mile). I had been running then, but it was all random distance, usually the same course daily.

As far as full miles are concerned, I have only run one mile faster than 8:00, a 7:25 on a treadmill. At best, then, that's my limit, a 22:59.5. Since I think I have no evidence suggesting I can hold that, this leaves me thinking about my options.

Yesterday's workout with Jim was based on the presumption (I think) I can run a 26:27, for which I have no doubt.

Guessing (wildly) then, with a good rest the day before, and smart workouts the week before, I can do a 25:00. I will need to knock off a complete 1:33 from my previous best, which I fully understand is a stretch.

The plan will be to start at an 8:04, try to hold an 8:04, and, if I have anything left, since I still have no particular speed or endurance, to pick it up with around a half mile to go. If I have the juice, I'll survive and run a 25:00 (in blue). If not, I'll choke and gasp, and lumber through with a 27 or 28. I'll decide later if this is a good plan.

5K -- Mile
23:45 -- 7:40
24:00 -- 7:45
24:15 -- 7:49
24:30 -- 7:54
24:45 -- 7:59
25:00 -- 8:04
25:15 -- 8:09
25:30 -- 8:14
25:45 -- 8:18
26:00 -- 8:23
26:15 -- 8:28
26:30 -- 8:33

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