St. Mary of Gostyn 5k 2008
Presuming the course is flat (and I have no idea), I want even splits. I want a PR. A lot of things are working together: overall good workout, better mileage base, good weather predicted.
What's my goal? With my crummy outing at the Viking Sunset 5K, I have no check on where I am now. My last good race was July 4, but that was a hillier four miler. A good race it was, but it provided little reference for tomorrow.
So what'll it be? Huh? Huh? The race will defined by how fast I run mile 1, and how I feel when I get there. Go out too fast, and I'm sunk. No juice left. Go out too slow, and either I can never switch into a speedier mode, or, I finish the other 2.1 well, but wonder what I could have done with a good mile 1. With no useful reference, it is all risk.
The weather is will be between 56°F and 85°F. Early in the morning, things should be cool. Under 70°F will make it the coolest race I will have run this year. This is good.
Mile 1 -- 7:00
Mile 2 -- 7:00
Mile 3 -- 6:45 (until finish)
That's pretty safe, and has room for adjusting. If I feel great after mile 1, so be it. I'm still in the mix to run a PR (under 22:00), and, ready to tear things up if I'm in the zone. Mile 2 is the arbiter of mile 3, and the liaison to reality. A 7:00 pace start also means if I'm miserable, I will not be so out of it that the race is shot entirely. I should still be able to push out a 22:30, finishing the remaining 2.1 miles in 7:22.
So, potential range: 21:10-22:30.
We'll see. All of this is just blog talk. Reality comes with the finish.