Factors: I'm getting in better aerobic shape. Better, I think, than anytime last year. I'm more disciplined about pace. Heat: 87° is predicted. If true, going out gonzo the first mile would drain every corpuscle of usefulness.
If I start at that 7:05, and I have a great race, the best I think I can do is a 21:15. The worst? I think 22:30.
A decent race will get me under 22:00. A 21:30 (7:05 + 2.1 miles x 6:52) could be in the cards. The hard part will be starting slow.
Other goals (be aggressive)
- A strong second mile.
- A racing mentality: can I pick off the next guy?
- Work the hills
- Pick up at 19:00: no matter how far I have run, I need to surge gradually. I should have less than a half mile to go.